Netflix subscriber base might skyrocket to 200M in the second quarter.
Sajid Ali -
Following Netflix’s recent announcement of 15.77M subscribers amid the start of COVID-19 pandemic (pre-pandemic the estimate was 8.2M), Comparitech revisited its study on Netflix’s subscriber numbers and total revenue.
Previously, it was taken based on Netflix’s total revenue from America and the rest of the world and determined the company’s approximate revenues in various countries around the world. For the first time, Netflix has come forward and announced the figures from 4 different regions, the United States and Canada; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Latin America; and Asia-Pacific. Comparitech states that it has been able to more accurately estimate the revenues generated in each country. Also, we see how Netflix’s subscription figures and revenues have grown in each of these regions over the last two and a half years.
Netflix at the end of 2019 had over 167M subscribers that generated a total of over $20.1bn during the year. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2020, the subscription skyrocketed due to the global pandemic in many countries. By April 2020, Netflix garnered 183M subscribers.
From the subscriber figures by the region, its growth is predominant in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, making them a larger chunk of Netflix’s subscriber base. Comparitech took individual country statistics to show that Netflix now has over 300,000 subscribers in the UAE. The US and Canada now form just over a third of Netflix’s subscriber base, compared to over half at the start of 2018, while subscriber figures within Latin America have remained pretty constant. However, revenue growth came primarily from Asia-Pacific.
To try and ascertain how much revenue Netflix has generated in these countries, Comparitech applied the figures from Netflix’s quarterly earnings report for Q1 2020. Then, to get an estimate of the current subscriber figures in these countries (for Q1 2020), it applied the per cent increase seen in each region from Q4 2019 to Q1 2020.
Then they went on projecting ongoing revenues for Q2 of 2020 based on the increase seen in Q1 pertaining to each region. Netflix has its own estimate for the Q2 which is an additional 7.5M paid subscriptions, an increase of 4.1%. These predictions were made at the beginning of April, depending on the long lockdowns and restrictions would remain in place. But they’re not sure if they’re going to be higher or lower.
If Netflix continues its success streak from Q1, they may have 200.5M subscribers by the end of June, with quarterly revenue of $6bn. The impact of COVID-19 did favour Netflix’s numbers and revenue, but we won’t have a clear picture of the numbers until their Q2 figures are announced which will be sometime next month.